Bears likely to take control of Nifty on breach of 10,417; Hero, RIL, HCL Tech top buys

The best case scenario for June still remains sideways to negative based on long-term trend projections, and a breach of recent lows of 10,417 may extend the correction up to 10,320, Mazhar Mohammad, Chief Strategist – Technical Research & Trading Advisory, Chartviewindia.in, said in an exclusive interview with Moneycontrol’s Kshitij Anand.

Q: The Nifty50 on weekly basis rose 1.2 percent. It failed to close above its crucial levels of 10,700. What does weekly, and monthly chart tell about the technical picture?

A: On the weekly and monthly charts, Nifty made an indecisive pattern ‘Spinning Top’ was witnessed on the weekly charts whereas on the monthly charts it registered a Doji kind of formation. April was a strong month whereas in May we haven’t made any progress.

Going forward, our best case scenario for June still remains sideways to negative based on our long-term trend projections. As we have been pointing out that we are in a multi-month corrective phase from the highs of 11,171, it seems that the pullback rally from the lows of 9,951 culminated at recent highs of 10,929.

We are presuming that inside this consolidation phase, Nifty50 may evolve itself into a triangular formation with lower tops but with higher bottoms.

According to the Elliot wave parlance, the triangular structure will unfold in 5 legs and it seems that second leg culminated at the recent high of 10,929.

If our reading is right then going forward we should breach recent lows of 10,417 and may extend the correction up to 10,320 to culminate the third leg. This may take a couple of weeks and hence the month of June may remain sideways to negative.

This view will be negated if Nifty50 manages a close above 10,929 levels as we adjust our charts to the next best alternative scenario available with us which is new highs.

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